|
|
LGI / Resources / Ethnic relationsUNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE GSFI Fellow Global Security Fellows Initiative ISBN 1 900741 50 4 UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE Faculty of Social and Political Sciences Global Security Fellows Initiative Occasional Paper No. 11
Ethnic Early Warning Systems and Conflict Prevention Éva Blénesi is a trained international mediator and negotiator who has studied negotiation and mediation techniques. her intersts now extend to early warning sytems for ethnic conflict. CONTENTS Preface (Dr. Jack Shepherd)............................................................ 8 Introduction ..................................................................................... 15 Chapter One Some basic elements and requirenments in setting up an early warning system ........................................................... 18 Chapter Two Dimensions of an ethnic early warning system ........ 22 Chapter Three Working at risks: bridging early warning with conflict prevention ........................................................................... 35 Conclusions ...................................................................................... 44 Selective Bibliography ..................................................................... 45 Notes ................................................................................................. 46 THE PEW CHARITABLE TRUSTS The Global Security Fellows Initiative and its programmes are funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts of Ohiladelphia, Pennssylvania, U.S.A. The Pew Charitable Trusts is a national and international philanthropy. The Trusts support nonprofit activities in the areas of conservation and the environment, culture, education, health and human services, public policy, and religion. Through their grant making, the Trusts seek to encourage individual in development and personal achievement, cross-disciplinary problem solving and innovative, practical approaches to meet the changing needs of a global community. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Pew Charitable Trusts. Preface
by
Dr. Jack Shepherd In the post-Cold War era, intra-state conflicts continue to occur and are creating humanitarian crises. One of the greatest challenges to peace and stability is ethnic conflict between people seeking political autonomy. Such conflict has shatterred the pre-1989 nation state of Yugoslavia, errupted accross of the former Soviet Union, and created large numbers of casualties and refugees accross central Africa. In Europe, the Central Carpathian region - which streches from northeastern Hungary, through western Ukraine and eastern Slovakia into southern Poland - is seen as a potential source of future conflict and instability. GSFI selected this region for analysis by its Ethnic and Sectarian Conflict Research Team because it is a mosaic of nationalities, cultures and religions, "a microcosm of the New Europe, containing a potential volatile mixture of nations and peoples". There are several dimensions to the potential volatility in the Carpathians:
For these and other reasosns, international experts consider the region "one of the greatest friction plates in Europe, with significant potential for both conflict and cooperation". Members of the GSFI Ethnic and Sectarian Conflict team identified various aspects of this potential for study and analysis; see, for example, GSFI Occasional Papers No. 4. and No. 5. here Eva Blenesi uses the profile of the Carpathian region and the issue of ethnic conflict as a starting point for her analysis of early warning systems. Preventive diplomacy, early warning systems, confidence building measueres, proactive encounters are some of the ways of diminishing the potential for conflict. Their advocates seek ways to identify, monitor and intervene in such conflicts to prevent esacalation. In Central Europe, The London Times has called the Carpathian region "an ex-Yugoslavia awaiting a spark". In this paper, Ms. Blenesi Asks: Is there a way of designing an early warning system - similar to those used for famine early warning - that would engage conflict prevention and preventive diplmacy into violence? In brief, can an early warning system be designed to lessen the chances of such a spark being struck? In 1993, the Global Security Fellows Initiative (GSFI) began analysing some new concepts of nonmilitary threats to security. These concepts included four significant transnational forces already impacting on regional and global security: the environment, ethnic and sectarian conflict, economic dislocations and polpulation/migration. These nonmilitary threats have multiple and interlinked sources and are transboundary. Environmental threats, for example, may create air, water, health and refugee problems accross an entire sub-continent, with direct economic, social and political consequences. The impacts of ethnic and sectarian conflict have been made evident in former Yugoslavia and elsewhere in the old Soviet Union. GSFI is a research and training programme designed to promote cooperation accross borders. In its first phase, which began in 1993, GSFI brought to Cambridge four teams of eight mid-career men and women each from regions undergoing transformation. These GSFI Fellows focused on new and pivotal questions regarding the peace and security of peoples and nation-states in Central and eastern Europe and in South Africa. Between 1994 and 1996, all four GSFI Teams also worked on policy prescriptions that addressed important issues concerning inter-community and ethnic conflicts and that cerated agendas for action and implementation of possible solutions. GSFI Fellows came to the University of Cambridge for a one-year fellowship that included training and a significant research project. In teams of eight Fellows they examined one of the four important challenges to the security and peace of nations, peoples and in those regions:
These issues are seen as potentially destabilising in these two regions. Therefore, each team of GSFI Fellows must also
In its second phase, two additional GSFI research teams have re-engaged the issues of environmental pollution and ethnicity and autonomy in Central Europe. All GSFI research is being published as individual Occasional Papers and as larger team research reports by the global Security Fellows Initiative at the University of Cambridge. Occasional paper No. 6 describes in greater detail the GSFI programme and each team’s selection, members, research focus and analysis. These Occasional Papers from the Global security fellows Initiative form a coherent series emerging from the programme’s team-based research. The research was predominately empirical. GSFI Fellows, who live in the two regions undergoing transformation, identified and examined real and significant transboundary issues and problems. They created from this analysis lon-term policy prescriptions and agendas for implementation of those policies. By doing so they engage in and contribute to the continuing analysis of new global security threats and issues - they expand the depth and scope of human discourse in the new and significant debate. Éva Blénesi of Budapest, Hungary, was a GSFI Fellow with Team Two, the Ethnic and Sectarian Conflict team. This team’s geographic focus was the Central carpathian Region. It sought to measure the potential for ethnic and sectarian conflict within the Central carpathian region. A seen elsewhere, one of the most immediate threats to peace and security comes from the drive toward political autonomy and the ethnic conflict that sometimes erupts from that process. While the Central Carpathians remain quiescent, the potential for conflict is inherent in the rgion1s social and religious diversity and economic waeknesses. This GSFI Team sought to explore not only the potential for conflict in the Central Carpathians, but also 8and perhaps more importantly) the opportunity for reducing that potential and for increasing cooperation. This Occasional Paper by Ms. Blénesi, and two previous paprs in this Series by Ms. Zofia Kordely-Borczyk and Dr. Izabela Suchanek, identify and propose unique approaches to this problematic region. The two previous papers both the important issues surrounding transboundary cooperation and analyze the model of the carpathian Euroregion. Dr. Suchanek asks: Can new agencies of civil soviety based on transboundary cooperation be developed that might prevent conflict in a volatile area like the Carpathians? Ms. Kordela Borczyk suggests a differnt perspective: Can economic development within the Euroregion model help create political stability in this region? In this paper, Ms. Éva Blénesi undertakes a daunting task. Using previous, excellent work in famine early warning systems, she seeks to design and analyse a conflict prevention early warning system. While early warning, conflict prevention and preventive diplomacy are widely known and accepted, she writes ‘very little ... has been done in actually translating it into operating strategies or workable practice’. Early warning and conflict prevention are pro-active strategies that offer opportunities for stopping disputes before they erupt into conflict. A successful early warning system, therefore, gives third-party intervenors the opportunity to put positive, confidence-building measures into play and allows disputants time to identify issues and move toward solutions. Studies from the field of conflict resolution, she continues, suggest that early forms of third-party intervention have better chances for success before the conflicting parties become polarized or hostilities have broken out. The proposal for creating early warning systems to off-set potential ethnic conflict is a signifiant and positive step. It immediately engages the preventive diplomacy field and contributes to other initiatives in the international community. Moreover, as Ms. Blénesi sets it out here, an early warning system fits well with the concepts focusing on cooperation put forth by the eralier GSFI papres on the Carpathian region. Together, they offer a broad scheme of enormous potential benefit to the carpathian region of Europe. The sad lessons of ethnic and sectarian conflict are increasingly evident in Europe and Africa. We focus here on a potential model for diminishing conflict and for moving toward cooperation. Bibliography: Carpathia Euroregion Project, The. Institute for EastWest Studies, September 1994. Kordela-Borczyk, Zofia. "The Case for Economic Cooperation and Development in the Central Carpathian Region: the Euroregion Model", GSFI Occasional Paper No. 4. Shepherd, J. and Kessler-Shepherd, K., "The Global Security Fellows Initiative: An International Leadership and Research Programme", GSFI Occasional Paper No. 6 Suchanek, Izabela. "Problems and Possibilities for Political Cooperation in the Carpathian Euroregion: the Role of Local Government", GSFI Occasional Paper No. 5 INTRODUCTION However the idea of early warning, conflict prevention and preventive diplomacy is becoming widely accepted as compelling - even in vogue one might say -, very little is known that has been done in actually translating it into operating strategies or workable practice. Yet, the growing interest in them is still encouraging in that sense as it shows the recognition that there is nothing automatic about peace and stability, so the structures of the security must be created and addressing and managing disputes before they turn into irreversible spiralling conflicts is the preferred option. Also many studies from the field of conflict resolution suggest that mediations and other forms of professional third party interventions have better chances when the conflicting parties are not highly polarised, emotions of each others’ stigmatisation are not too intensified, and before hostilities have not broken out yet. Many of the conflict mitigation tools have a broad literature and it has been in-length studied, but usually in relation to post-conflictual situations or advanced stages of conflicts and very rarely to pre-crisis stages lacking at the same time a theoretically conducted and empirically based analyses of the subject matter. Both early warning and conflict prevention are pro-active strategies in terms that both concepts suggest something in advance, something prior to the events. Early warning as well as conflict prevention may be regarded also as umbrella concepts as they are both spanning a complex, wide range of approaches and methodologies starting from current analyses of events, historical background analyses, media analyses, field survey, statistical sampling, pre- negotiation, third party consultations, mediations, training sessions - just to mention a few of them. But while in the case of early warning per definition the emphasis is on preparedness and on addressing root causes of problems, conflict prevention mainly focuses on action oriented plan, trying to shape the modalities of intervention how to transform or resolve the conflicts. One of the crucial tasks in early warning is ascertaining where and when the most harmful conflicts are likely to occur so that the most appropriate levels of response might be committed to them. The basic motivation behind this contribution is the aim to move closer the idea of early warning with conflict prevention in a more concrete feasible strategy. In search for creating an early warning system for ethnic conflicts, the inspiration partly came from the already existing early warning strategies developed by distinguished experts in the field (Michael Lund, Norbert Ropers, Kumar Rupasinge, Wolfgang Zellner, Donald L. Horowitz, Robert Ted Gurr) and from instruments applied by different institutions and organisations (The Berghof Center for Constructive Conflict Management, European Platform on Conflict Prevention and Transformation, The European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI), United States Institute of Peace, OSCE, UN, NATO, or Sándor Márai Foundation (Slovakia), Fundacja "Progranicze" (Poland) Liga Pro Europa, APADOR-CH (Romania), Foundation for Human Rights and Peace Education (Hungary), and from other domains like famine- (Africa) and water quality protection early warning systems on the Rhine, which in terms of addressing some of the conceptual and practical problems related to the field can be relevant for ethnic issues as well. And at least but not last my experience in this field would be much poorer without coming across to those spontaneous ‘early warning systems’ which came into being due to unusual life-situations and the related activities needed courage as well as common sense. Two examples of this latter are illustrative in this regard: the first being taken from Northern Ireland and the second from two villages from Transylvania (Romania) very close to Tirgu- Mures, a town where the pogrom from 1990 took place. This contribution wishes to draw attention on the top priority of preventive actions and at the same time to assist policymakers to build themselves an awareness of the need of conflict prevention. The package of information that might help in the process of building this awareness is designed in a relatively simple outline, so that decision makers faced with a crisis can achieve a quick and better understanding of the issue, thus enabling them formulate cost-effective and timely decisions. Nevertheless, the proposed early warning system is never meant to be prescriptive. It can neither replace responsible human decision-making, nor its matrix technique can be conceived in a manner of a rigid grid which filters, selects and ultimately rejects all new and unforeseen elements which not included previously. On the contrary, it can be regarded as an open-ended tool, or a framework for conflict detection that needs permanent improvement and it is always adjusted to the specific needs of an extremely complex and sensitive issue.
I. SOME BASIC ELEMENTS AND REQUIRENMNENTS IN SETTING UP AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Basic elements of any early warning system a) Information element - identification of the reliable early warners - identification of the target groups b) Action element - identification of the audience - exchange of information on specific crisis situations where the tensions are in evidence - capability of monitoring the development of the process - initiating the most appropriate preventive measures
- the system needs to estimate the dynamics of the crisis situation before ‘the point of no return’ is reached - such information is needed which describes the determinants of the conflictual situation within the chosen pluralistic community - the system must also build in past experiences and must seek information on how interethnic crisis have been coped with and if they are applicable to the given situation Note:
1.2. The warning message In all cases, before launching a message, a primary analyses of the information must take place at its source. As a further step comes the interpretation of the following basic components: changes in behavioural patterns, changes power relationship, unexpected events and their dynamics. The information nucleus based on local experience must be directed towards a higher level, expended and ultimately supplemented by further layers of analyses of the areas of risk: at samll community-, communal-, regional-, national and international level if needed. A warning message should be well articulated, expressing clearly what the treat is about and what kind of measures the receiver is expected to undertake. Note:
II. DIMENSIONS OF AN ETHNIC EARLY WARNING SYSTEM The previous chapter dealt with some basic requirements which are valid to early warning systems in general. In order to adopt those requirements specifically to ethnic conflicts there are a set of additional elements which should be incorporated too into the system.
2.3. Levels of conflict situation
Note:
In continue, using the matrix technique, I’ll outline the causative indicators at different levels. Table1. Matrix of Some Basic Causes, Symptoms and Preconditions of Ethno-Political Conflict Situation at Different Levels
While the above matrix is illustrative for some basic symptoms, causes and pre-conditions of ethno-political conflicts at different levels, the schematic figures that follow will serve to show how do the main elements (the causal indicators and the different levels behave and shift at different instances: at their occurrence, reversibility and control at a given time-frame.
Fig.1. Reversibility and Time of Occurrence of Ethno-Political Conflict Situations at Different levels of Society MORE inter-personal small community communal regional intra- state inter-state LESS EARLIER LATER TIME OF OCCURRENCE
Fig. 2. Control of Ethno-political Conflict Situation at Different levels of Society MORE inter-personal small community communal regional intra-state inter-state LESS EARLIER LATER
Fig. 3. Reversibility and Time of Occurrence of Some Basic Causes and Symptoms and Preconditions of Ethno-political Conflict Situations MORE socio-cultural history social awareness economic political-ideological current events
EARLIER LATER
Fig. 4. Control of Some Basic Causes and Symptoms and Preconditions of Ethno-political Conflict Situations MORE socio-cultural history social awareness economic
LESS
A selective expounding of Matrix 1. Some basic causes, Symptoms and Preconditions of Ethno-political Conflict Situations at Different Levels The firs cluster (A) of the causal scheme refers to the socio-cultural dimension of the ethno-political conflict. An important element of this dimension is the in-group/out-group differentiation. The apprehension of the cultural differentials is based on whether the groups or individuals differ from one another in a ‘socially significant’ way, with respect to ethnicity or nationality, language, religion, social customs, traditions and life style. By ‘socially significant’ I mean differences that that are widely seen or can be perceived. The inadequate- or the lack of knowledge of each others’ language in a pluralistic society may cause tensions - stemming from ignorance or suspicion - on inter-personal and small community level (at jobs, schools) as it may even serve as a communication barrier between the representatives of different ethnic groups. On communal level, especially in divided cities like ‘Derry or Londonderry (Northern Ireland) a more important role play in ethno-political tensions the symbols, rituals. Religious pilgrimages can be also illustrative in this regard, like the one from the traditional Roman Catholic pilgrimage at Pentecost in Csíksomlyó (Sumuleu, Romania). Distinctive religious values as source of ethno-political conflict may over-arch regional, intra state or inter-state levels. The conflict between the Greek-Catholic Ruthenians and the Ukrainian Orthodox beleivers is a regional problem in Central Carpathian region, but it is also an intra-state conflict within the Ukraine or Slovakia. In the case of ex-Yugoslavia, the high polarisation along ethnic lines coincided with those of religious ones: the Orthodox, the Catholic and the Muslim. Indigenous lifestyle may be a source of conflict both on regional and inter-state level: e.g. the outstriking difference between the lifestyle of autochton population of the Central Carpathian Region and the nomadic lifestyle of the Romany people. Myths, beliefs may also play an important role in ethno-political antagonism on intra-state and inter-state level. The case of Slovak-Hungarian relationship is illustrative in this regrad: the Hungarians have created for themselves a myth of part of a great nation, victim of historical injustices and threatened with expulsion from their ancient homeland. From the next cluster (B), history, historical events -both actual and imagined - play a crucial role in the inter-ethnic relationship as they largely influence the interplay between social consciusness, social identity and socio-political action. This is particularly true in such multi-ethnic societies like those on Central Carpathian Region, wher representatives of different ethnic groups have a shared cultural identity, a common historical heritage, and what might initially appear to be a social action very easily and quickly polarises along ethnic lines. On inter-personal and small community level oral or living history has a very significant role in shaping inter-ethnic relationships. Such events in our region (Central Carpathian) can be related to the period between the two WWs, when acts of violence have been committed from each sides and their selective emphasis still serve as source of suspicion and aggravates the Hungarian-Slovak, Polish Ukrainian or Hungarian-Romanian relationship of today. Taught history has a ever increasing role as we move from communal level towards inter-state level. The main problem consists in the fact that there are separate histories, firmly articulated and unacceptable in their national version to the other. The history of Transylvania or Kosovo is relevant in this regard. Hungarians and Romanians view Transylvania while Serbians and Albanians Kosovo as the craddle of their civilisation. The history of relationship of the people in East Central Europe and the Balkans is often contradictory and from all different versions it is very difficult to discern the correct one, this is the main reason why we meet so many ‘white spots’, disputed facts. All these unclear, emotionally charged elements in history influence stereotypes. Also the markedly differences in cultural-civilisatorical traditions may serve as key factors in ethno-political conflicts. Disputable though, Huntington gives an extremely sombre visage while speaking about the relations between groups belonging to different civilisations: ‘cold peace, cold war, quasi war, uneasy peace, troubled relations, intense rivalry, competitive coexistence, arms races: these phrases are the most probable descriptions of relations between entities from different civilisations.
Again, if an ethnic group is mainly associated with low social status, then its culture tends to be stigmatised, thus being target to discrimination and harassment. The case of Gypsies is relevant from this point. Social aspects of coexistence are often subjects of complaint among Hungarians and Slovaks in Slovakia, but this fact already points towards the economic dimension (cluster D) of the causative indicators. Data from 1990 show that according to 45 % of the Slovaks from the ethnically mixed areas of Southern Slovakia, the Hungarians are better off, while more than 29 % Hungarians believe that members of their ethnic group do not have the same opportunities or gain less recognition at the working place than their Slovak colleagues.
On regional level an important constituent of economic dimension is the governmental and/or external investment. The Carpato-Euroregion is the economically less developped area in all four countries (Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and the Ukraine) having also the highest rate of unemployment, where social tensions can be easily manipulated for ethno-political puruses. On communal level the representation in local government or the cultural division in administration may cause serious ethno-political disturbances. In Romania, for instance, the appointment of a Romanian prefect in an ethnically 90 % Hungarian county (Harghita) caused a wave of protest from the Hungarian population side.
The last item - and the most important one in my view - of the causative indicators are the current events (cluster F) as their unpredictable dynamic may easily cause an irreversible spiral of conflicts. On communal level magnified minor events, or the distorted, inexact descriptions of real events, false information or rumours may contribute to the growth of ethno-political tensions due to their emotional charge and their ability to generate strong sentiments. The media plays an immense role in ethno-political disputes: an information vacuum or a distorted item of information in the media wil generally precipitate a new wave of misbelieve. This was the exact case of two young people in Marosvásárhely/Tirgu-Mures (Romania) , who in 1990 have broken a flower pot near a statue from the main square. The statue was symbolising a Romanian national hero called Avram Iancu. One hour later the event has been commented in the main evening news of the Romanian national TV as an act of violence against the state’s national symbol. According to the TV commentators, the young people tore into pieces the Romanian national flag, too. The flag was fixed at an approximately 8 meters height on the stue, though. Due to the state broadcast this news caused an ethno-political disturbance not only in the respective town but country-wide as well. Demographic growth is also an important element of causative indicators: the markedly higher birth-rate of the Romany people in comparison to the other ethnic groups in the Central Carpathian Region or of the Albanians in Kosovo or of the Catholics in Northern Ireland serves as a source for potential conflicts.
Mass demonstrations, large scale public meetings, marches may easily create an atmosphere prone for ethno-political clashes. For instance the annual Orangemen parade in Northern Ireland or the tragic ethno-political conflicts between Hungarians and Romanians in March 19-20 1990 in Marosvásárhely/Tirgu-Mures (Romani) . This latter event has been preceded by mass public meetings on the main square of the town. Environmental issues as source of ethno-political conflict play an ever important role on regional and inter-state level. The Gabcikovo-Nagymaros Danube Dam dispute between Hungary and Slovakia is relevant in this regard. Unusual military movement can also be an alarming sign and source of an ethno-political conflict both at intra-state and inter-state levels. The declaration of independence of Slovenia and Croatia in 1991 provoked the deployment of the Yugoslavian federal Army and the armed conflict started with the local Slovenian militia. The chart that follows gives an accurate and timely information on this event. Chart representing the crisis mechanism of the Committee of Senior Officials within 48 hours informs sufficient no within 24 hours yes stop within 48 hours Duration : between 48 hours and three days Note: Against this background and witnessing the current events which are taking place in former Yugoslavia one may rightly wonder why the international organisations did not intervene before? The Dutch Minister of Development Co-operation, Jan Pronk, gave a brief typology of the causes for international inaction in the face of crisis in general. Among them were opportunism (‘It’s not our best interest to intervene’), pragmatism (‘We never intervened before so why do it now?’) and indifference. All three have the usual names attached to them: Bosnia, Rwanda, Nigeria, Kenya, Sri Lanka, Chechnya, Algeria. The empirical findings from Matrix 1 and the related analysis ( A selective expounding...) serve as a tool, a framework or background for the identification of sources and pre-conditions of conflict and they are directly related to the information element of the proposed early warning system. As previously illustrated by the chart representing the mechanism of Senior Officials identifying the problem solely is not enough in itself if it is not coupled with appropriate preventive measures in due time. Therefore, it is necessary that problem identification should be followed by the identification of the adequate audience, by the determination and involvement of institutions and organisations and by finding the appropriate preventive tools, in sum by finding the modalities of bridging early warning with action oriented plan.
III. WORKING AT RISKS: BRIDGING EARLY WARNING WITH CONFLICT PREVENTION The timely and accurate detection of potential ethno-political conflict does have a value and can be effectively used in case appropriate structures for systematically dealing with potential and existing conflict are created, and there is an environment for sustained communication between early warning and early action. A consequent attention to fulfil these requirements may contribute to the elimination of gaps between conflict problem analysis and action and may facilitate the development of adequate policy strategies. However, one of the great challenges is matching early warning with early action still remain: How to find the right audience for the right warning message? How to find the most suitable recipient bureaucratic and non-bureaucratic levels to the warnings? How to estimate case-by-case the suggested policy response levels?
After trying to identify the root-causes of ethno-political problems the next step points towards the identification of different bureaucratic and non-bureaucratic levels of the early warning system. For this purpose I employ the already existing structures of authority and non-authority service as a framework for determining the possible targets of the warning message. Matrix 2. Suggested bureaucratic and non-bureaucratic response levels to ethic early warning message
A selective expounding of Matrix 2. Suggested bureaucratic and non-bureaucratic response levels to ethnic early warning message
On small community level one of the suggested response levels to warnings are the local governments. The case of Uszka (Hungary) is particularly promising as it can serve as a model for non-confront life in a multi-ethnic environment. On communal level one can highlight the role of churches. In some cases third party intervention (e.g. non-governmental organisation) played an important role in initiating joint activities between churches which have had long lasting conflicts. The Prague based NGO, the Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly has been successful in the role of interrmediator during a seminar on religious minorities held in Bucharest, Romania in 1992. On inter-state level the role of the ombudsman/ombudswoman cannot be underestimated, however, the proper institutional framework - if it does exist at all - for his/her activity is rather new in the Central Carpathian Region. According to Jenő Kaltenbach, the Parliamentary Commisioner for National and Ethnic Minorities in Hungary, ‘It is true that the ombudsman’s tool is reason and not power, persuasion and not force, then it is not difficult to understand, that in a majority-minority relationship - where usage of force is always harmful - the ombudsman can play an important role.’ The role of High Commissioner on Ethnic Minorities is of key importance both on intra-state and inter-state levels for having a specific and explicit early warning mandate and capability of contributing substantially to conflict prevention.
In the process of shaping the modalities of intervention in preventing ethno-political conflicts, a further step is the identification policy response levels to warning messages in accordance with adequate bureaucratic and non-bureaucratic response levels. Some experts, like Michael Lund suggests the use of both ‘soft’ (including diplomacy, building of local institutions) and ‘hard’ preventive tools (military force) while other experts are in favour of either the one or the other from the two above mentioned tools. I, myself, opted for the ‘soft’ ones mainly because the ‘hard’ ones come into play mostly in advanced stages of conflict not in pre-conflict situations. Matrix 3. Suggested policy response levels to ethnic early warning messages
A selective expounding of Matrix 3. Suggested policy response levels to ethnic early warning messages
Since events in a society are themselves perceived by each individual, so they are reducible to an inter-personal level. Hence my attempt to allocate policy responses to a very low stage, too. At this stage as well as on small community and communal level one of the suggested policies is citizens’ diplomacy. By citizens’ diplomacy generally it is understood civic initiatives by private individuals or non-official organisations, all attempts to reconcile tensions between different ethnic groups through exchange of programs, informal meetings, mediation programs.
Lately, due to its global capacity, the media is becoming one of the most powerful and influential factor in ethno-political conflict situations, therefore one of the suggested policies already on communal- but more particularly on regional, intra-state and inter-state levels is positive journalism. The aim of positive journalism is to counteract hate-journalism and to stimulate give space to productions and publications which emphasise peaceful resolutions of conflicts, collaborative problem-solving, a ballance of different opinions between target groups and stimulate the identification of common ground. At intra-state and inter-state levels preventive diplomacy could be particularly promising if included both in the domestic and foreign policy of the countries in the Central Carpathian Region. According to Michael Lund ‘Preventive policy means a pro-active engagement in at the early stages of low-level potential conflicts or related crisis, involving governmental or non-governmental, political, economic or other efforts to keep states or communal groups from threatening or using armed force or coercion as the way to settle political disputes that arise from the destabilising effects of national or international change. It aims to discourage or minimise hostilities, reduce tensions, address differences, create channels for resolution, and alleviate insecurities and material conditions that attempt violence.’ Note: The empirical findings from from Matrix 3. And the related analyses (A Selective expounding of suggested policy response levels...) are related to the Action Element of the Ethnic Early Warning System. They are aimed to facilitate step-by-step the activity of the early warners while identifying the audience, exchanging information on specific crisis situations, contributing to monitoring the development process and in initiating the most appropriate preventive measures.
As mentioned briefly in the introduction, the proposed early warning system is conceived in a manner in which two larger entities - early warning and conflict prevention - might be accommodated. The novelty of this approach could seen in that attempt to create a vertical and horizontal communication channel between the three basic components of the project, also represented by graphical means. (See related matrixes and figures):
The kind of approach implicitly presupposes the involvement of multiple actors. The idea of the establishment of a virtual institute for regional initiative programme could which could manage multiple interdependences is stemming from the group members of the Global Security Fellows Initiative Programme. One of the instruments best suited for the kind of initiative is computer-aid diplomacy. Lately emerging computer system opened up new perspectives and gave new impulses for regional and global early warning- and preventive strategies. These systems specialised on the field of conflict prevention, mediation, international negotiation and virtual diplomacy have the capacity of storing and sorting out large amounts of information related to the field of political- and military crisis and events of economic, human rights, cultural and ecologic significance. They are expected to be used both as a data base and as analytical tool. Projects involving computerised access to information also mean that out of the data stream they can easily provide a solid background for developing control cases to test early warning models, moroever they can identify than abstract and analytically code daily international and domestic information. Experts in the field of computer aid early warning and preventive diplomacy suggest that the management of political crisis can be at large extent enhanced by increasing access to the relevant information for the given foreign policy situation, but with all that, the key to developing effective information system is to design them in consultation with their end-users such as, official and non-official professionals from the field of conflict prevention.. Since computer-assisted early identification and conflict prevention coverage is rapidly developing and expanding, it is expected to include all relevant countries and non-state organisations. Nevertheless, the real challenge still remains - not only for the designers but for the end-users as well - the recognition of multiple interdependences within the system itself and between other related systems from global network. With all that, no matter how sophisticated these computer systems might become, user-friendliness will always be a key factor in their estimation. CONCLUSION
The kind of approach raises many more practical and theoretical questions though, the two main reoccurring ones in dealing with ethno-political conflict mitigation still remain the following:
My tentative answer to these extremely difficult questions is the following:
Selective Bibliography Brubaker, Rogers (1996) Nationalism Reframed. Nationhood and the New Europe. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press). Coleman, James S. (1978) Coming to Conflict. (UK: Macmillan Press). Fric, Pavol, et al. (1993) The Hungarian Minority in Slovakia. (Prague: Hic at Nunc). Gurr, Ted Robert. (1993) Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts. (Washington: United States Institute of Peace). Kocsis, Károly. (1994) ‘Contribution to the Background of the Ethnic Conflicts in the Carpathian Basin’ GeoJournal 32(4), pp. 425-433. Lund, Michael. (1996) Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy. (draft ms.) (Washington: United States Institute of Peace). Rupesinge, Kumar and Kuroda, Michiko, eds. (1992) Early Warning and Conflict Resolution. (Basingstoke, UK: Macmillan Press). Zellner, Wolfgang (1998) On the Effectiveness of the OSCE Minority Regime. Comparative Case Studies on Implementation of the Recommendations of the High Comissioner on National Minorities of the OSCE. (ms) A Research Project of IFSH LGI / Resources / Ethnic relations |